In just under two weeks, our friends across the pond will go and vote as part of the US presidential election. Investors around the world will be watching the outcome closely, as it will increase volatility in the stock market. Here are two UK stocks that I think could do well, depending on which candidate is elected.
Demand driven inflation
If Donald Trump wins, I think that HSBC (LSE:HSBA) could do very well. The global banking giant has operations in the US, particularly with the corporate and investment banking division.
Some of Trump’s policies are focused around cutting the corporate tax rate and imposing tariffs on trading partners. Both of these could actually serve to increase inflationary pressures in the economy, but also stimulate domestic growth.
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HSBC should benefit from this in two main ways. Firstly, higher growth should see the businesses that it serves be more active, including transactions, loans and even merger and acquisition activities. This should boost revenue. Second, if inflation does rise, interest rates might have to stay higher for longer. This should benefit HSBC as it will make more net interest income if this happens.
One risk is that HSBC has operations in over 60 countries. Therefore, even if the US division does well in the coming year, it might not have that much of an impact on the share price. The stock is up 11% over the past year.
Infrastructure investment
If Kamala Harris wins, Balfour Beatty (LSE:BBY) could gain. The construction and engineering company is involved in several infrastructure projects in the US, such as the port of Long Beach, which is part of a larger $2bn Middle Harbour project.
Even though the stock is already up an impressive 50% over the past year, I think it could keep going in the coming year based partly on the election results. This is because Harris has committed to investing in more infrastructure projects, as well as maintaining the pipeline of deals that the current Biden administration approved.
Interestingly, the company’s half-year report showed that US construction revenue was $188m higher than UK construction revenue for that period. This shows that if things do take off in the US, it could materially help to increase profitability.
Of course, this is a very competitive area to be in. I imagine a large number of companies will be pitching in for future projects if they come online, which could trim the profit margins for Balfour Beatty.
I’m not trying to speculate on who will win the election. Rather, I’m going to wait and see what happens. Depending on who wins, I think the respective stock mentioned could do well over the following year or more. Therefore, I’m putting both on my watchlist and waiting patiently for the coming weeks!
